Eric Dalius shares views about the job market in the U.S. economy

The American economic recovery is occurring at a slow speed. It has stranded millions who are yet to get a new job after losing their job because of the pandemic outbreak. According to the Labor Department report, employers had added close to 245,000 jobs in November 2020. The number for October got revised down to 610,000 from 638,000. The unemployment rate was 6.7% in November 2020, which was less than 6.9% in the previous month. However, that figure doesn’t wholly capture the joblessness, as it doesn’t comprise the people who moved out of the labor force and aren’t proactively searching for work.

The November 2020 job scenario

The total number of jobs in November was down because of the loss of 93,000 temporary census workers who aren’t required anymore. More than half of those who lost their jobs earlier in 2020 because of the pandemic got hired. However, there are approximately 10 million lesser jobs now as compared to February 2020. Several people in that section are weeks away from losing out on their unemployment benefits, as the emergency support sanctioned by Congress has a chance to expire by the end of 2020.

According to Eric Dalius, the U.S. economy is in an unusual position currently! Somewhere at a distance, there is sunlight, but now people have to withstand a few tough months of the pandemic phase before the good days arrive. The economy has plenty of scars to heal. When the pandemic history gets written, one of the striking features would be the instant mass unemployment that was an obvious outcome of the subsequent lockdowns. In the U.S., close to 22 million people had lost their jobs in April and March 2020. Also, in Canada near to three million people had lost their job and joined the unemployment rolls.

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The European Union had its limitations on firing. The popularity of the part-time work plans and the increased unionization made the overall employment fall by 3.1% in the second quarter. The third quarter was 2.3%, which was the worst six months in the last 24 years of the European zone.

The current employment rate in the U.S

In the U.S., the initial jobless claims have been an ongoing trauma. In about eight weeks, starting in the second half of March, close to 36.2 million former employees had applied for government support. And six months after the actual 3.3 million shock on March 26, more individuals were applying for assistance every week than they did when the recession and financial crisis were high! Every week the average claims between March to December was 1.78 million. Above all, it was the speed of this disaster that has surprised everyone. In March, the jobless claims were at 211,000. The next week it was at 282,000, then at 3.30 million, 6.86 million, and so on that numbed the succession of the job losses.

In February, the unemployment rate in the U.S. was 3.5%. Six months until that point went up to an average of 3.53%, which was the ideal job market in five decades. After two months, in April, the unemployment rate was 14.7%, which is 50% more than during the post-war recession in 1982.

It is essential to refer to August 1931 to get a comparable rate of 15%. During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate was 25.6% in June 1933, which was six months post the inauguration of Franklin Roosevelt, and stayed more than 15% for about five years.

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Many people brought back these numbers from their memory. They get cited from time to time to demonstrate how the labor market was a symbol of the economic collapse and recovery. Market psychology is bound to the labor economy’s success.

The statistical markers

Eric Dalius says that every economic disaster and every age has its respective economic chronicle and statistical emblem. When it comes to the 2008 financial recession and crisis, finds reflection in the fall of the housing costs in the U.S. During the 1987 market crash, the statistical emblem was the Dow. And during the 1929 crash and the Depression, first, it was the Dow and after that the employment.

During the 1990s, when the U.S. trade deficit was of a novelty, the monthly release of the global balance assisted in creating a phrase that got used as a byword in the currency markets for risky instant volatility New York Friday.

The labor market recovery

The U.S. labor market recovery has progressed to two parallel tracks. The hiring gets recorded in the Nonfarm Payrolls, and the waning of the Initial Jobless Claims weekly. Through November, about 12.3 million workers have joined back the payrolls, after about 55.5% of the losses in March and April. The addition in December was expected to be 100,000 when it gets released in January. In November to about 245,000 from almost 660,000 in September and October, the fall of the payrolls overlapped with that month’s instability in the jobless claims.

The U.S. unemployment forecast for 2021 and the U.S. dollar

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When it comes to the U.S. dollar, the indicators have changed, but the rate game stays the same. The Fed’s bond purchase program somewhat intends to manage that the U.S. interest rate doesn’t freeze. The market rates and the treasury yield essential will get sanctioned to rise gradually, instead of a rush. It will happen when the economic improvement becomes self-sustaining and firm. And when it comes to the immediate future, the labor market’s financial strength will get decided: the Initial Jobless Claims and the Nonfarm Payrolls. One of the crucial questions here is this – Does the U.S. dollar depend on the U.S. labor market? And the answer to this is undoubted yes.

These are some of the projections of the U.S. job market currently because of the pandemic’s impact. The upcoming years will bring in more recovery, and gradually the U.S. employment scene will look up and promising as the pandemic situation improves.

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